How many LNG vessels remain confined within the Middle East Gulf (MEG), and how quantifiable is the disruption to regional LNG trade?
The first signs of disturbance emerged on February 25th, when vessels that had already loaded at Qatari or Emirati terminals, such as 9626285 Gaslog Skagen, began spoofing their AIS signals for security reasons while repeatedly attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which at that point had not been officially closed. The first week of March marked the formal onset of the MEG conflict, adding six more LNG carriers to the developing bottleneck. By March 11th, VesselTracker observations reported a total of nine LNG vessels effectively trapped within the MEG.
Wood Mackenzie’s LNG Live Voyages API, a real‑time tracking service for LNG carriers, indicates that the number of impacted shipments climbed to 30 within a single week. This figure estimated by March 12th, includes both vessels fixed to load within the MEG and those attempting to depart. Carriers committed to MEG loadings have turned to alternative waiting zones, anchoring in the territorial waters of India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia (near the Strait of Malacca), and Oman. Others continue ballasting from more distant points across East Asia, monitoring the situation closely and awaiting a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Furthermore, full‑scale reroutings are becoming increasingly common, as transit through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal grows more dangerous. For instance, 9750232 Pan Americas , originally bound for the North Sea via Suez, opted for the longer Cape of Good Hope route despite the associated increase in freight costs. On the other hand, positive‑impact reroutings are emerging as well: 9324277 Nova Energy, initially fixed to Europe after loading in Nigeria, shifted course and is now transiting via the Cape toward Asia.
Meanwhile, some shipments have still departed from Oman’s liquefaction facility, despite force majeure conditions and the uncertainty compounded by Iranian threats against carriers tied to US‑related trades. These cargoes, bound for Asian markets, continue to move freely across the Arabian Sea.
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