India has become the shock absorber of the Russian crude trade. Weekly loadings swing, routings shift and grade-level flows fluctuate sharply, yet Russian barrels continue to reach Indian refineries at a remarkably consistent pace. That contrast, pronounced weekly volatility against a stable annual baseline, remains the most important signal in the latest data.
Russian Urals loadings ran to approximately 2.15 million b/d across the Baltic and Black Sea in the week to 9 October, according to Wood Mackenzie's Russia waterborne crude tracking. Of that, roughly 1.24 million b/d was declared for the Indian Subcontinent, the single largest destination for the grade. Pacific ESPO loadings simultaneously surged to approximately 824,000 b/d, highlighting the extent to which Russian export flows can vary from week to week.
Yet the volatility visible in export programmes is not reflected in underlying Indian demand. Russian crude discharges into India reached approximately 1.34 million b/d during the week, with significant volumes received at Vadinar, followed by Paradip, Chennai and Sikka.
The broader trend remains intact. India's Russian crude intake averaged approximately 1.53 million b/d year to date in 2026, up around 11.6% from approximately 1.37 million b/d in 2025. Despite substantial weekly fluctuations in Russian loading activity, India continues to absorb Russian crude at historically elevated rates and well above pre-war norms.
That distinction matters. If Russian crude were merely an opportunistic trade, Indian intake would be expected to mirror the volatility seen across weekly export programmes. Instead, the data points to a different conclusion. The volatility lies in logistics, scheduling and shipping cadence. The stability lies in demand.
The persistence of Russian crude in India's feedstock mix despite changing freight conditions, sanctions pressure and periodic supplier diversification suggests that the trade relationship is increasingly structural rather than purely price-driven. Russian crude therefore continues to function as a structural feedstock source for Indian refiners rather than a temporary market adjustment.
Weekly export swings may alter the pace of flows, but they have yet to alter the direction. Through 9 October, the signal remains unchanged: weekly volatility is the noise, while the India baseline is the story.
For global Russian waterborne crude movement tracking, connect with Wood Mackenzie's Russia Waterborne Crude Service.
