The US-Iran conflict escalation in the past week pushed the number of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to load Saudi crude at Red Sea export terminals to nine. Eight of the VLCCs discharged their cargo into storage at the Sumed onshore terminal at Ain Sukhna. The virtual closure of the Straits of Hormuz, coupled with increased threats from Houthi attacks led most tankers to avoid the Bab el-Mandab, although one of the VLCCs did load for Malaysia.
Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie's storage data for Saudi Red Sea terminals showed inventory at Al-Muajjiz flat last week at 7.8 million barrels and levels at the Yanbu crude terminal also steady at around 10.1 million bbl. This stability at origin points contrasts with developments downstream.
Wood Mackenzie storage data also revealed a 7% week-on-week increase in inventory at the Egyptian terminal, reaching 15.3 million barrels. Those crude volumes are usually transported via pipeline to the northern Sumed terminal where they are shipped onwards into the Western market from Sidi Kerir.
Through the week, Saudi crude loading in the Red Sea surged well above 2 million b/d, significantly above recent averages. Wood Mackenzie tracking shows Saudi crude waterborne exports from Yanbu averaged 735,150 b/d through 2025. The dramatic uptick reflects the virtual shutdown of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed more barrels onto westbound routes.
This shift highlights the critical importance of the East-West Pipeline and loading operations near Yanbu. The Saudi pipeline system, with its capacity near 5 million b/d, remains the only alternative for Saudi barrels that cannot safely move through the Hormuz chokepoint.
Sustained Yanbu offtake, coupled with the near halt of loadings in the Middle Eastern Gulf, will continue to push more crude through the East-West Pipeline and via Saudi export terminals into the Red Sea corridor, fundamentally altering regional oil flow patterns. The critical constraint now becomes infrastructure capacity: how many vessels can load Saudi crude simultaneously at the Red Sea ports, and can the pipeline and terminal system sustain this elevated throughput over an extended period?
